Today, as the Government implements the SDS40 scheme, I am again highlighting the significant impact this move will have on the Probation Service, and its critical role in mitigating and managing risk.  

It is clear the extreme pressure prisons are facing – they are currently close to 100 per cent capacity, with the population at a record level – is a gravely serious issue. It is essential action is taken and, with limited options available, these early-release proposals are the least-worst option. However, a challenging scheme like this which has also, necessarily, been implemented at speed carries risk.  

We already know that following release these prisoners will need to be supervised by the Probation Service on licence – but the pressure on the Service is just as severe as that on our prisons. Our Inspectorate’s work has found all regions are struggling with their current workload, and every recent inspection has delivered ratings of ‘Inadequate’ or ‘Requires Improvement’.  

 I am aware huge efforts have been made by the Probation Service to prepare for today and I applaud those efforts. This hard work will continue in the coming weeks and months, but, while the 8-week notice period before the first releases has given them a fighting chance, it does not change the fact there are too few staff, many of whom lack experience, managing too many cases.  

We know from our inspections that success on release depends on good risk assessments, information sharing, stable accommodation and ongoing community support. Delivering this requires expertise, resource, and time, from the Probation Service and beyond. So, given what we already know about the pressures Probation and support services across the country are facing, this significant increase in releases will inevitably lead to increased risk of recall, of reoffending and, unfortunately, a small risk that serious further offences will take place.  

The Probation Service already manages these risks daily, and this scheme rightly excludes the most serious sexual and violent offences; but given the scale and complexity of the work they deliver, risk can never be completely eliminated. Fewer than 300 people were convicted of serious further offences in the last year for which figures are available. Every one of those cases is a tragedy and the Service, with assistance from our Inspectorate, should always seek to learn lessons from those, but they are – and should remain – rare.  

Moving forward, HM Inspectorate of Probation will play a key role in monitoring how this scheme is working and identifying areas for improvement – including through proposed inspection changes set out in our ongoing consultation in response to ‘Probation Reset’. Good probation practice keeps communities safe and reduces reoffending, and it is essential it has the resources to better match its workload. That may mean increased resources, or choices on where its finite resources should be focused – but we will continue working to provide the scrutiny and evidence needed to drive positive change.