Ground-breaking new research by HM Inspectorate of Probation, analysing thousands of probation cases, has found that higher-quality probation supervision leads to significantly better sentence completion rates and reduced reoffending.

The Inspectorate’s latest Research and Analysis Bulletins – compiled by the organisation’s own specialist research team – looked at what progress has been made in the past four years and where improvements can be made.

For cases getting high-quality probation supervision, the sentence completion rate was 24 percentage points higher, and the reoffending rate was 14 percentage points lower than for cases where supervision was judged to be inadequate by our inspectors.

The three reports are available on the HM Inspectorate of Probation website. They examined:

• The role of engagement (between probation officers and people on probation) for positive outcomes in probation
• The links between probation supervision and positive outcomes – early progress
• The links between probation supervision and positive outcomes – completion and proven reoffending

Chief Inspector of Probation Justin Russell explains why this research is important: “This vital research demonstrates the difference that high-quality probation supervision can make to reoffending rates. By matching our judgements on thousands of individual cases with data held on the Police National Computer, we have been able to show that where probation staff engage well with people on probation and ensure that the factors driving their offending are identified and dealt with, people are more likely to successfully complete their sentence and less likely to commit further crimes.

“Reoffending costs the country approximately £18 billion a year, so this clearly highlights the importance of investing in the Probation Service and ensuring that this work is of the highest possible standard. Less than half of the cases we have inspected over the past 18 months reaching our required standards, so there is still a long way to go to ensure that every case gets the quality of supervision it needs, but the pay-off to doing so would be enormous.”

The three Research and Analysis Bulletins focus on samples of cases analysed by HMI Probation inspectors, where both sufficient and insufficient quality of work had been found. These were then matched to the data held on probation case management systems and the Police National Computer, indicating whether the cases had been successfully concluded and whether there was any evidence of further police cautions or convictions.

HM Inspectorate of Probation Head of Research, Robin Moore: “Our inspection programme gathers a wealth of data, and this means we can drill down to the details of what high-quality probation supervision should look like through the eyes of our skilled inspectors.

“There are clear consistencies in terms of what positive work with people on probation looks like: working alongside a person via consistent and meaningful engagement during their supervision; tailored work and interventions that get to the heart of a person’s offending and tackle it; building upon strengths; and helping to remove barriers to engagement and completion. There are challenges, but this research shows there is a clear path to positive outcomes at all stages of probation.”

A summary of the findings from each of these Research and Analysis Bulletins

The links between probation supervision and positive outcomes – completion and proven reoffending  (PDF, 495 kB)

• Where our inspectors judged that the delivery both engaged the person on probation and supported their desistance, the sentence completion rate was 24 percentage points higher, and the reoffending rate was 14 percentage points lower compared to cases where both judgements were negative.
• For those who had reoffended, we found significant reductions in the frequency of reoffending when probation delivery was of a high-quality nature.
• Where practitioners had been empowered to deliver their best practice and given the time and space to build relationships, we found notable improvements in sentence completion and the reoffending outcomes.

The role of engagement for positive outcomes in probation (PDF, 470 kB)

• A ‘one size fits all’ approach is unlikely to be successful and work needs to be tailored to meet individual needs and be personally meaningful.
• Probation work is complex, and staff are required to utilise a significant number of skills in order to work with individuals.
• Individuals may face barriers to engagement, such as trauma. Engagement and the development of rapport and trust is a complex process and cannot be rushed.

The links between probation supervision and positive outcomes – early progress (PDF, 462 kB) 

• Positive progress was much more likely when the delivery was of high quality, encompassing the key probation tasks of (i) engaging the individual, (ii) supporting their desistance, and (iii) keeping other people safe.
• The findings support a personalised balanced approach, underpinned by secure, consistent and trusting relationships between practitioners and people on probation.
• Practitioners need to be empowered to deliver their best practice and given the time and space to build secure and trusting relationships.

Notes to editor

1. These reports are available on HM Inspectorate of Probation website: 00:01 25 August 2023.
2. HM Inspectorate of Probation is the independent inspector of youth offending and probation services across England and Wales.
3. For media enquiries, please contact Head of Communications media@hmiprobation.gov.uk (E-mail address)